Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger Surge in Chemical Raw Material Prices, Intensifying Cost Pressures on Powder Coatings Industry Chain

Recently, escalating geopolitical conflicts and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Brent crude oil prices once surged to nearly $120 per barrel, setting a record for single-week gains, with PX prices jumping over 22% and PTA prices rising more than 20% within a week. As the "mother of raw materials" for the chemical industry, the cost pressures generated by surging crude oil prices are rapidly transmitting downstream along the industrial chain, sweeping across the entire chemical sector. From upstream basic chemical raw materials, to midstream polymer materials and specialty chemicals, and further to downstream end products, the cost burden is passed down layer by layer and continuously amplified—becoming the core driver behind rising chemical product prices. The chemical market is witnessing intense situations of "daily quotes" or even "multiple price adjustments per day," with some upstream raw materials not only experiencing price hikes but also facing supply shortages and risks of disruption.

Since before the Spring Festival, prices of major raw materials for powder coatings have soared across the board: epoxy resin has accumulated increases of 7,000–8,000 RMB per ton, polyester resin has risen by 3,000 RMB per ton, and curing agents have skyrocketed by 10,000 RMB per ton. The additives sector has seen equally astonishing increases, with brightening agents and leveling agents rising by 4,000 RMB per ton, and chemical matting agents surging by 20,000 RMB per ton. In terms of pigments and fillers, although titanium dioxide has only increased by 500 RMB per ton, the industry has launched its first collective price hike of the year, with 27 companies issuing price adjustment letters. Silver powder has risen by 6,000 RMB per ton, and organic pigments by 500–600 RMB per ton. The core drivers behind this wave of price increases are the dual forces of strong cost-side support and supply-side contraction expectations: on one hand, the Middle East conflict has led to a broader reduction in operating rates at Asian refineries, with supply contraction moving from expectation to reality; on the other hand, as the industry enters the concentrated maintenance season in the second quarter, multiple leading domestic refining and chemical companies have announced production cuts ranging from 10% to 30%, further exacerbating the tight supply situation in the spot market.

Looking ahead, industry insiders generally expect powder coating raw material prices to remain high in the short term. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to ferment, with no significant signs of relief in the Strait of Hormuz's navigability. If the conflict becomes prolonged, Qatar's Energy Minister has warned that oil prices could even surge to $150 per barrel. From a fundamental perspective, expectations of crude oil oversupply have been completely reversed, with cost-side increases remaining the market's primary focus. For downstream powder coating enterprises, under the dual pressures of sluggish demand recovery and high raw material costs, how to absorb cost pressures through refined supply chain management, technological innovation for cost reduction, and product structure optimization will become key tests of their survival capabilities and development resilience.